Mathematical modelling to investigate the impact of awareness programs on the spread of HIV/AIDS amongst people who inject drugs (PWIDs)

Alsharari, Maha Farhan

Thesis

Mathematical modelling to investigate the impact of awareness programs on the spread of HIV/AIDS amongst people who inject drugs (PWIDs)

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Creator

Alsharari, Maha Farhan

Rights statement

Strathclyde Thesis Copyright

Awarding institution

University of Strathclyde

Date of award

2024

Thesis identifier

T16952

Person Identifier (Local)

201656324

Qualification Level

Doctoral (Postgraduate)

Qualification Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department, School or Faculty

Department of Mathematics and Statistics

Abstract

Injecting drug use is a growing risk factor for the transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the majority of countries, and the high prevalence of HIV among many populations of persons who inject drugs (PWIDs) presents a huge global health issue (Mathers et al. 2008). Approximately 11.3% of the world’s population uses injection medicines in relation to drugs and crime on Drugs and Crime (2020). The risk of drug overdose and blood-borne infection, especially HIV and Hepatitis B and C, which are transmitted through the sharing of contaminated needles and syringes and risky sexual behaviours of individuals who have been infected, makes injection drug use a major public health problem and a leading cause of morbidity and mortality on Drugs and Crime (2020). The spread of HIV has seen the widespread application of mathematical modelling approaches. In most nations around the world, the injection of drugs is a significant contributor to the spread of HIV/AIDS. The media plays a significant role in raising health consciousness and influencing behaviour change. The existing literature illustrates how differential equation models can be used to describe the effects of media awareness initiatives on the spread and containment of disease (Greenhalgh et al. 2015). In this thesis, we consider the effect of an awareness program on the dynamic behaviour of the spread of HIV/AIDS amongst PWIDs. The HIV/AIDS model can be modelled using the SIS and SIR models with time-varying parameter values. We develop the mathematical differential equation model that extends the research by Greenhalgh and Hay (1997), Liang et al. (2016) andLewis and Greenhalgh (2001) to illustrate the impact of disease awareness campaigns on the rate of HIV transmission among PWIDs. The new assumption of the model is that PWIDs clean their needles before use. For each of these different epidemic models, we have developed a mathematical model to represent the new, more effective model that curbs the spread of the diseases by decreasing the prevalence of needle and syringe sharing among PWIDs. We have primarily discussed two approaches for examining how awareness of infection levels affects epidemic modelling. First, we perform an analysis of stability and provide both local and global results. The fundamental reproduction number R0, an essential factor in our work, has a formula that we determine. If R0 is greater than one, there are two steady states: one without disease and one with it. Additionally, we demonstrated that the disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable when R0 is less than one and neutrally stable when R0 = 1, and unstable when R0 > 1. These analytical results are confirmed and investigated numerically by simulating the equations with the SOLVER computer simulation software. The realistic parameters for these simulations were derived from data and the infectious disease literature. To conclude the thesis, a brief discussion and summary section are provided.

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