Thesis
Modelling the spread of hepatitis C virus amongst people who inject drugs
- Creator
- Rights statement
- Awarding institution
- University of Strathclyde
- Date of award
- 2023
- Thesis identifier
- T16635
- Person Identifier (Local)
- 201650001
- Qualification Level
- Qualification Name
- Department, School or Faculty
- Abstract
- There are countless developing health problems in the world. One of the most crucially overlooked is hepatitis C virus (HCV) which directly affects 3% of the global population (Akhtar et al. (2022)) and countless more indirectly. In a span of two decades after discovery, HCV has evolved to become the number one cause of liver disease globally (Shepard et al. (2005)). One of the prime examples of this phenomenon is Scotland. As a result of the abundance in resources, there is an ever-growing population of individuals that inject themselves with drugs. These individuals significantly increase the rate of infection and spread of the disease. In 2006 approximately 50,000 native Scottish citizens were positive for the HCV virus, with the largest group of these individuals being former people who inject drugs (PWIDs) (Hutchinson et al. (2006a)). Even with these growing numbers, the services aimed to reduce infection among PWIDs, with a focus on HCV and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), have been running since the 1980s. Though the services offered have very good results in the prevention of HIV, they have proven ineffective in the prevention of HCV. With this in mind, there are some recommendations within the Hepatitis C Action Plan courtesy of the Scottish Government (Goldberg et al. (2008)), that aim at improving intervention coverage among PWIDs alongside the prevention of further HCV infection. However, the dynamics of PWID populations alongside other factors associated with the prevalence of HCV in this group will be difficult to study. Nevertheless, there are attempts made through the application of mathematical modelling techniques to recognize the link between the transmission of HCV and the risky behaviour witnessed among PWIDs. Additionally, these techniques are stretched further with the aim to comprehend the effect of strategies such as intervention plans, diagnostic techniques, treatment options and their combinations associated with the healthcare options linked to HCV (Corson (2011)). Therefore, this thesis focuses on the analysis and development of mathematical models that assess and determine the HCV infection rate among PWIDs. These models are expected to be capable of being used to obtain real-time HCV prevalence estimates for Glasgow PWIDs. Moreover, we have changed the PWID needle interaction assumptions made by Corson et al. (2012) to allow needles to progress through different infectious stages and introduce treatment of infected PWIDs. These models are used to study how varying intervention measures and parameter estimates affect the spread of HCV in the population. Particularly, interest lies in determining control strategies and values of possible control parameters that can make eradication of HCV in Glasgow a reality. An example of this is using the model to ascertain the number of syringes and needles that can be distributed by the Glasgow and Clyde Health Board to mitigate the spread of HCV and continue until HCV is fully eradicated.
- Advisor / supervisor
- Greenhalgh, David
- Resource Type
- DOI
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PDF of thesis T16635 | 2023-06-21 | Público | Descargar |