Thesis

Developing a decision-making methodology for investing in newbuild large oil tanker

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Awarding institution
  • University of Strathclyde
Date of award
  • 2022
Thesis identifier
  • T16253
Person Identifier (Local)
  • 201757625
Qualification Level
Qualification Name
Department, School or Faculty
Abstract
  • The world’s marine sector is comprised of myriad tangled multinational elements. As part of this industry and as any other large organisations, the huge businesses that deliver oil products around the world are faced with rising levels of difficulty in making appropriate choices in their survival strategy due to the greater number of interrelated variables. Market volatility in the oil industry has increased the desire for both raw and refined goods, which has driven further demand for new vessels capable of transporting such wares to their final destination. This work is primarily concerned with investment decisions, given the uncertainty and difficulty that companies often encounter when attempting to assess the data behind any such choice with regard to the procurement of vessels, and that the key aim is thus to develop a method that can simplify this process. The main purpose of this thesis is to develop decision-making methodology to assist in making the appropriate investment decision when it comes to investing in Newbuild Large Oil Tanker. The aim is reached through using ANN and logistic regression to first predict future oil prices that can impact this decision through ANN; then, to develop an equation that can be used to make the decision. First, the identified relevant variables are assessed on their own, and together, using the DEcisionMAking Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL). After that, as published studies have already determined good precision using Neural Networks in this field, this work will seek to introduce Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a means of advancing our ability to accurately predict the behaviour of the price of oil. It will then seek to further apply the logistic regression technique as a way to create an equation as part of the process of developing a method whereby a given business may accurately gauge the efficacy of a given strategy with regard to the viability of investment into the purchase or construction of new tanker vessels.
Advisor / supervisor
  • Turan, Osman
  • Boulougouris, Evangelos
Resource Type
Note
  • This thesis was previously held under moratorium from 24th May 2022 until 24th May 2024.
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