Thesis

Uncertain futures : exploring the economic consequences of school-leaver trajectories in Scotland - methodological challenges, policy implications, and future research

Creator
Awarding institution
  • University of Strathclyde
Date of award
  • 2016
Thesis identifier
  • T14562
Person Identifier (Local)
  • 201561399
Qualification Level
Qualification Name
Department, School or Faculty
Abstract
  • Disadvantage in early life is often linked to disadvantage later in life. This can be in terms of school performance and ultimately employment status. Inequality is prevalent in Scotland, especially amongst young people - this can affect the pathways, or trajectories, they then take through life. Downstream interventions have been implemented to tackle such issues but the evidence of their success, in terms of outcomes for young people, is fragmented. Carrying out research to determine such outcomes is often infeasible or unethical.This research first learns from studies aiming to estimate the costs of life trajectories of young people. Complexity in implementing costing methodologies to socially embedded contexts comes in terms of the lack of common costing framework, the uncertainty over which consequences to attribute to the problem, the exact cost to attach to each consequence, and when the cost is to be incurred across the life-course.Using direct costs to the Scottish Government, this research applies costs to eight trajectories school-leavers might take based on school-leaver destinations (Higher Education, Further Education, and 'leaving education') with the final outcome states being employment status. The costliest trajectories are those involving extended periods of time in unemployment. Further analysis through a decision tree model and some basic employment rates post-HE/FE/school, finds, given the assumptions made, that it will always seem favourable to leave education. It is concluded that this is because the cost of unemployment is significantly underestimated here, and the lack of consideration of the higher return on investment which HE/FE should allow in terms of tax revenues. These aspects are considered through a proposal of future research.The first phase of the proposed research involves the use of systems mapping techniques to better understand the systemic issues of how young people get trapped in cycles of disadvantage and the levers to alleviate them of such cycles; the second phase continues the quantitative modelling of this research to develop a more realistic picture of trajectory costs and where cost savings might be made; and the third phase proposes the application of expert judgement elicitation to use experts to consider the potential effectiveness of different intervention models where the evidence of such models is lacking.
Resource Type
DOI
Date Created
  • 2016
Former identifier
  • 9912548689702996

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