Thesis

Forecasting and time-resolved life cycle assessment for maritime decarbonization

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Awarding institution
  • University of Strathclyde
Date of award
  • 2026
Thesis identifier
  • T18177
Person Identifier (Local)
  • 202283377
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Abstract
  • Maritime transport is central to global trade but remains heavily dependent on carbon-intensive fuels, creating significant environmental, regulatory, and strategic challenges for decarbonization. This thesis develops and applies a maritime life cycle assessment (LCA) framework integrating Well-to-Wake (WTW) emissions accounting, Holt–Winters forecasting, scenario analysis, regulatory interpretation, and operational activity data to evaluate alternative marine fuel pathways under future demand, regulatory, and operational uncertainty. The framework is demonstrated through two case studies at different decision scales. The first assesses the Singapore–Rotterdam containership green corridor using a representative containership with a capacity of 8,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) and compares marine diesel oil (MDO), bio-methanol, and e-methanol under future demand and regulatory scenarios. Forecasting-oriented LCA links lifecycle emissions with projected transport demand, FuelEU Maritime requirements, and European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) exposure. The results show that renewable e-methanol provides the strongest lifecycle performance among the assessed corridor pathways, although outcomes depend strongly on electricity source, production pathway, and infrastructure assumptions. The second case study applies an Automatic Identification System (AIS)-based, time-resolved port-based life cycle assessment (Port-LCA) framework to seven container-vessel trajectories within a 20-nautical-mile (NM) boundary around the Port of Busan. MDO, natural-gas-derived methanol, e-methanol, natural-gas-derived ammonia, and e-ammonia are compared by linking vessel movement, propulsion demand, fuel consumption, and WTW emissions. The analysis reveals vessel-level variability and short-duration emission peaks that may be obscured by aggregated inventories. Overall, the thesis demonstrates that forecasting and time-resolved operational analysis can increase the decision relevance of maritime LCA. Fuel-production pathways are more influential than fuel labels alone, while future activity growth may offset improvements in emissions intensity. The framework is intended for comparative and strategic decision support rather than deterministic forecasting or official emissions inventories.
Advisor / supervisor
  • Jeong, Byongug
  • Gunbeyaz, Sefer Anil
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