Thesis
Essays on the legacy of conflicts and demographic policies: inequality across generations
- Creator
- Rights statement
- Awarding institution
- University of Strathclyde
- Date of award
- 2026
- Thesis identifier
- T17974
- Person Identifier (Local)
- 202273129
- Qualification Level
- Qualification Name
- Department, School or Faculty
- Abstract
- This thesis examines the long-term consequences of conflicts and state demographic policies, focusing on how such large-scale shocks shape human development, well-being, and inequality across generations. Leveraging both historical and contemporary data, it demonstrates that the effects of conflicts and policy interventions extend far beyond their immediate effects, influencing individuals, families, and communities in the long term. This thesis comprises three interconnected essays, each providing empirical evidence on how external shocks impact long-term outcomes in health, development, and inequality. In the first essay (Chapter 2), I collaborated with my supervisors to investigate how past exposure to U.S. bombing shapes local development trajectories in Cambodia decades later. Drawing on extensive geo-coded datasets and a spatial regression discontinuity design adapted to multiple boundaries, we show that conflict generates distinct mechanisms depending on bomb detonation failure: a persistent risk channel when unexploded ordnance (UXO) remains, and a recovery trigger channel when bombs detonate, and no lasting hazard is left behind. Exploiting soil conditions that affect bomb detonation but are orthogonal to bombing locations, we find that in Cambodia, more than three decades after the bombing, soft-soil areas where bombs were more likely to fail experience higher UXO incidents, worse health outcomes, and weaker economic performance. In contrast, hard-soil areas where bombs were more likely to detonate face lower UXO risks and exhibit better health with stronger economic development. The legacy of conflict is thus shaped by two distinct channels: destruction that can open space for recovery, and enduring threats that impede long-term development. In the second essay (Chapter 3), I joined with a fellow PhD student to examine the intergenerational spillover effects of China’s One-Child Policy on health. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies and a reduced-form regression discontinuity design, we estimate the local average treatment effect of the policy on urban Han Chinese. Our results show that children of policy-exposed mothers experience significant improvements in both physical and mental health, driven by improved maternal health and socioeconomic conditions, greater investment in child health, and better parenting practices. This chapter contributes to the literature on intergenerational health transmission and the quantity–quality trade-off, highlighting how family planning policies can generate long-lasting effects across generations. The third essay (Chapter 4) examines how violence influences gender inequality, particularly female empowerment and domestic violence, using evidence from the Khmer Rouge Genocide in Cambodia. I draw on various geo-coded datasets and a spatial regression discontinuity design to demonstrate that the genocide has significant lasting negative effects on female empowerment and domestic violence. In high-repression areas, women today are less empowered and more vulnerable to domestic violence, especially emotional violence. I provide evidence for several mechanisms that possibly explain these findings, including skewed sex ratios and higher fertility rates following the genocide, lower household wealth, and significant changes in gender-related characteristics such as younger marriage age and less education. Women are more likely to work, though mainly in part-time rather than full-time positions. Men are more likely to have multiple marriages. The chapter shows that mass violence not only harms societies in the short run but also creates lasting barriers that hold back women’s empowerment for generations. Overall, this thesis contributes to a growing body of literature on the long-term consequences of conflicts and demographic policies. It provides new empirical evidence on how large-scale shocks reverberate through health, well-being, and inequality, thereby illustrating the profound and lasting impact of historical disruptions on societies.
- Advisor / supervisor
- Lenhart, Otto
- Norris, Jonathan
- Resource Type
- DOI
Relations
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