Thesis

Scenario planning effectiveness, creativity and the shipping industry

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Awarding institution
  • University of Strathclyde
Date of award
  • 2022
Thesis identifier
  • T16439
Person Identifier (Local)
  • 201780189
Qualification Level
Qualification Name
Department, School or Faculty
Abstract
  • Research output investigating the effectiveness of scenario planning has grown over the years. However, a theoretical explanation of scenario planning effectiveness is not documented in the literature. Additionally, scenario planning is often viewed as related to creativity; yet the literature is slim regarding the relationship between the two. Accordingly, this doctoral work investigated the effectiveness of scenario planning in general and further specifically examined the role of creativity in scenario planning effectiveness within the shipping industry. This work addressed the identified gaps through three original scientific contributions employing a mix of methodological approaches. First, a configurative literature review of scenario planning effectiveness was conducted. Critical Interpretive Synthesis was used for evidence synthesis. Synthesising the literature showed that several areas desired by scenario planning were supported with evidence. However, it also affected its users in undesirable ways. Scenario planning may not be for everyone, not in every condition. Furthermore, the relationship between creativity and scenario planning was not researched extensively. The literature was not able to inform the parties interested in the role of creativity in scenario planning effectiveness for research and practice purposes. The case study findings showed that the maritime scenarios were not as creative as Shell scenarios. It is revealed that the degree of creativity in scenario planning varied depending on what was desired by practising scenario planning. Creative ideas played a significant role in scenario planning projects that aimed to transform the maritime scenario users’ understanding of a given issue. Creativity is also added value to the scenario planning process.
Advisor / supervisor
  • McKiernan, Peter
Resource Type
DOI

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