Thesis
Out with the old, in with the new the impact of leader change on voter perception of parties in Britain
- Creator
- Rights statement
- Awarding institution
- University of Strathclyde
- Date of award
- 2024
- Thesis identifier
- T17076
- Person Identifier (Local)
- 201959819
- Qualification Level
- Qualification Name
- Department, School or Faculty
- Abstract
- A considerable body of scholarly research suggests that party leaders play an important role in shaping how voters feel about parties, but what happens when a party changes its leader? Focussing on the British Labour and Conservative parties since the 1970s, this thesis examines how leader change impacts voter perceptions of parties. It achieves this through quantitative analysis of aggregate polling data from 1971 to 2023 as well as the British Election Study panel survey, which facilitates investigation into individual reactions to four recent leader changes. In addition, new data on the annual ideological positioning of party leaders is generated through quantitative text analysis of leader conference speeches. This novel data creates an opportunity to develop and test new theoretical ideas about how ideological shifts within and between leadership tenures impact public perceptions of parties. The empirical contribution of the thesis begins by studying whether leader change serves to increase party support, before exploring potential factors (including ideological differences between predecessors and successors) that moderate this impact. It goes on to investigate whether new leaders receive greater latitude from voters to ideologically reposition compared with leaders who already possess established ideological reputations, and examines the extent to which new leaders take advantage of such opportunities considering intraparty constraints. Finally, the thesis explores how individual voter characteristics influence responses to leader change, arguing that perceptual filters are likely to dictate the extent to which different voters react to leader change. Collectively, the results shed light on various questions surrounding leader change, including the mechanisms that drive the effects of leader change, how long leader change effects can last, and the scope for ideological repositioning available to party leaders. The thesis also considers why leader change often seems to have a limited impact on party support, which is a recurring implication of previous research in this area.
- Advisor / supervisor
- Greene, Zac
- Brandenburg, Heinz
- Resource Type
- DOI
Relations
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PDF of thesis T17076. | 2024-10-09 | Public | Download |