Thesis
A statistical investigation into the contextual background of Scottish undergraduates
- Creator
- Rights statement
- Awarding institution
- University of Strathclyde
- Date of award
- 2025
- Thesis identifier
- T17376
- Person Identifier (Local)
- 202075988
- Qualification Level
- Qualification Name
- Department, School or Faculty
- Abstract
- Background Since 2016, Scotland’s “Widening Access Agenda” has primarily focused on increasing the proportion of those from the 20% most deprived areas in Scotland who gain admission to higher education. In 2024, this conversation shifted towards not just disadvantaged students’ access to university, but their academic performance once they are on-programme. This thesis aims to address the increased interest in students’ academic outcomes by analysing these alongside students’ socio-economic and demographic backgrounds at one Scottish higher education institution- the University of Strathclyde. This thesis is unique in that it is the first known in-depth, temporal analysis of student registration records at the population-level within the United Kingdom. In addition to being of policy importance to wider-Scotland, the results of this thesis are of also operational importance to the University of Strathclyde, which has a target of 90-95% retention for first-year undergraduates by 2030. Aims To explore 10 years’ worth of registration records on Scottish-school leavers at the University of Strathclyde in general. To determine whether or not contextual offer students are achieving similar levels of academic success as their standard offer peers. To measure the association between students’ academic outcomes and their prior attainment, demographics, and socio-economic background. To identify which statistical modelling techniques most appropriately fit the data. Data This thesis analyses 10 years’ worth of registration records at the University of Strathclyde (2012/13- 2021/22). These data are provided by the Strategy & Policy team with some additional data from the University of Strathclyde’s Widening Access team. Area-level deprivation is measured using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), where the 20% most deprived areas were denoted “SIMD Quintile 1”. The reproducibility of the results is of vital importance, hence this thesis details precisely how datasets were gathered, cleaned and joined. The data were filtered to only consider “Scottish-school leavers”- the population of interest- which contained 18,988 unique students. Methods This thesis presents the theory behind regression and survival modelling techniques. Three generalised linear regression models were examined: the Logistic, Modified Poisson, and Log-Binomial. Similarly, three survival models were examined: the Logit Discrete Time-to-Event, Cox-Proportional Hazards, and Parametric Weibull. Models explored the associations between a successful/unsuccessful outcome at university and students’ prior attainment from secondary education, their socio-economic background, and demographic background. Relevant models were compared to one another on the basis of their estimated effects and goodness-of-fit to identify the most appropriate modelling techniques. Results Between 2012/13 and 2021/22, around 90% of school-leavers were retained after the end of their first academic session, around 74% of school-leavers completed their Bachelor’s with Honours degree within four years and around 9% of school leavers dropped-out of the University. The majority of these drop-outs occurred in the first academic session (6%). Each of these academic outcomes were significantly affected by a student’s SIMD Quintile and prior attainment from secondary education. School-leavers from SIMD Quintile 1 had significantly lower chances of a successful outcome at the University compared to their peers from SIMD Quintiles 2-5, even when they had the same levels of prior attainment. Students who likely received a standard offer to the University of Strathclyde were 8.3% more likely to be retained at the end of first year and 18.6% more likely to complete their Bachelor’s with Honours degree within four years, compared to students who likely received a contextual offer. Both regression and survival methods adequately fit the data, although the regression models had various issues related to the interpretation of estimated effects. These effects were mitigated when using an academic outcome that was rarer, i.e. drop-out rather than retention or completion. Discrete survival methods were the most appropriate model fits, however, if regression methods were to be applied it seems unlikely that incorrect conclusions would be drawn. Future analyses Gaps between the academic outcomes of students from different socio-economic backgrounds (measured using SIMD) have been identified, even when they had similar levels of prior attainment. There is huge potential for future research into student registration data that could assist the university and wider-Scotland to achieve targets on Widening Access and the academic outcomes of students more generally. Future analyses should examine the associations with other key explanatory variables, such as university-level attainment and other measures of socio-economic background. These data could be used to develop early-risk prediction models to assist the university in making more targetted interventions. Data from more recent cohorts could be examined to measure any potential impact from the COVID-19 pandemic. It could also be explored whether the current entry requirement thresholds are appropriate or could be adjusted to reflect what is now known about the relationship between prior attainment and a successful outcome at the university. It is hoped that the results of this thesis provide a blueprint for analysing student outcomes for teams at the University of Strathclyde as well as at other institutions across the United Kingdom.
- Advisor / supervisor
- Young, David
- Sherriff, Andrea
- Kelly, L. A. (Louise A.)
- Resource Type
- DOI
- Funder
Relations
Items
| Thumbnail | Title | Date Uploaded | Visibility | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
PDF of thesis T17376 | 2025-06-11 | Public | Download |