Thesis
Three essays on the economic impacts of climate change and water scarcity in the Nile River Basin
- Creator
- Rights statement
- Awarding institution
- University of Strathclyde
- Date of award
- 2025
- Thesis identifier
- T17426
- Person Identifier (Local)
- 201859386
- Qualification Level
- Qualification Name
- Department, School or Faculty
- Abstract
- This thesis applies economic theories to analyse the effects of climate change on food prices, measure virtual water content in international trade, and examine the implications of climate induced agricultural productivity loss in the Nile River Basin (NRB) economy. It begins by examining the impact of trade anticipation on domestic food prices in East Africa, with a focus on staple foods. A trader anticipation model is proposed to analyse short-run price responses to weather shocks, emphasising the importance of traders’ expectations of future harvests influenced by weather updates. The study finds that weather shocks have a significant influence on food price volatility, and policy interventions, such as export restrictions, can help mitigate price spikes in the short run. However, weather events still exert a powerful effect on food prices, highlighting the need to account for traders’ anticipatory behaviours. Building on the analysis of food prices, the research then explores the virtual water content in international trade to identify an alternative water source for the NRB. Using a multi-regional input output framework with a water-extended model, it assesses the domestic and global water footprint of the NRB region. The findings indicate that the NRB region was a net exporter of virtual water, despite facing severe water scarcity issues, while Europe, Asia, and North America were net importers. The analysis indicates that most NRB countries have shown low water dependency, which improved in 2015 compared to 2007 due to various factors, including export restrictions during the global food crisis. This improvement can be attributed to the adoption of virtual water dependency trends, which helped mitigate the impact of water scarcity. However, high water self-dependency for domestic consumption and export signifies over-exploitation of water resources, posing challenges for sustainable water management. The study highlights the importance of developing more effective water-sourcing strategies and fostering international cooperation to ensure water security in the NRB region. Finally, the thesis examines the effect of climate change-induced agricultural productivity loss on Egypt’s economy using a CGE model. The findings suggest that agricultural productivity losses could have a significant impact on total output, value-added, household consumption, and employment in the long run. Agriculture, the most affected sector, has experienced a decline in production, resulting in a decrease in GDP and household income. Disruptions in agriculture have spillover effects across the economy, resulting in substantial welfare losses and increased unemployment. The study highlights the agricultural sector’s vulnerability to climate change and the consequent socio-economic impacts. It emphasises the need for a national adaptation plan to mitigate climate risks, with a primary focus on water resources. Such a plan should include measures to enhance agricultural resilience, improve water use efficiency, and support affected communities to ensure economic stability and food security. This thesis underscores the pressing need for targeted policy interventions and future research to mitigate the impacts of climate change on food prices, water resource availability, and economic stability in the NRB. The findings are pivotal for informing policymakers and academic researchers about fundamental areas of intervention and research gaps related to NRB regional climate resilience.
- Advisor / supervisor
- Allan, Grant
- Resource Type
- DOI
Relations
Items
| Thumbnail | Title | Date Uploaded | Visibility | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
PDF of thesis T17426 | 2025-07-15 | Public | Download |