Thesis

Qualitative risk assessment in animal health : past principles and future directions

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Awarding institution
  • University of Strathclyde
Date of award
  • 2026
Thesis identifier
  • T18001
Person Identifier (Local)
  • 201874928
Qualification Level
Qualification Name
Department, School or Faculty
Abstract
  • Risk assessment (RA) is concerned with the systematic compilation of data/evidence related to an unwanted risk, with the objective of providing an evidence base for risk management decisions. This thesis set out to evaluate how the use of qualitative RA has developed in the animal health sphere since the 1990s for purposes such as assessing the probability of disease introduction via global trade and veterinary RAs which can form part of a national exotic disease outbreak response. Compared to quantitative RA the field of qualitative is less well developed and this thesis aimed to expand the area by reviewing how qualitative RA has been used in the past including what the general difficulties were with its application. Specific issues were then addressed in assessments developed to expand existing literature and a method was proposed to address one of these issues, namely, uncertainty. Qualitative RAs use non-numerical terms to describe and communicate levels of risk and uncertainty, such as, high, medium and low. Therefore, to avoid concluding different estimates of risk from the same evidence it is important to standardise qualitative RA methodology for consistency by utilising a common set of methods and technologies. Demonstration of how the results were obtained using these methods, is additionally as valuable as the results themselves to ensure that misinterpretation by the risk manager is avoided. This thesis has contributed to the field of qualitative RA by identifying areas within a RA that can be standardised to ensure transparency of results. It has also pinpointed some topics that can be further developed and proposed a method for addressing uncertainty within qualitative RA. The conclusions from this thesis emphasise that qualitative RA plays an important role in animal health and that efforts to develop methodology should not detract from its usefulness in transparently communicating results.
Advisor / supervisor
  • Simons, Robin
  • Kelly, Louise
  • Kavanagh, Kim
Resource Type
DOI
Date Created
  • 2025
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