Values or politics? Explaining changing attitudes in England towards the welfare state and the UK’s membership of the European Union between 1987 and 2016

Montagu, Ian

Thesis

Values or politics? Explaining changing attitudes in England towards the welfare state and the UK’s membership of the European Union between 1987 and 2016

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Creator

Montagu, Ian

Rights statement

Strathclyde Thesis Copyright

Awarding institution

University of Strathclyde

Date of award

2025

Thesis identifier

T17443

Person Identifier (Local)

202054538

Qualification Level

Doctoral (Postgraduate)

Qualification Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department, School or Faculty

Abstract

Individuals might formulate their attitudes towards key policy issues around a set of core values. Alternatively, they might utilise endorsement heuristics and calibrate their attitudes to match the position of a trusted source of information, such as their preferred political party. Meanwhile, if a party changes its stance on a policy issue, its identifiers might be expected to respond by adjusting their own views to match this new position. But are political parties able to shape the attitudes of their supporters with a change in policy position irrespective of those supporters’ values? This study merges three decades’ worth of data from the British Social Attitudes survey (BSA) to test these theoretical questions, considering changing attitudes in England using a novel dataset comprised of 80,617 respondents. More specifically, it examines the role of core values, partisan identity, and shifting party cues in the formulation of attitudes towards the welfare state and the UK’s membership of the European Union between 1987 and 2016. Results demonstrate that attitudes in both areas are powerfully structured by libertarian authoritarian or ‘social’ values, with authoritarianism linked to the adoption of anti-welfare and Eurosceptic attitudes. They also highlight that the views of party identifiers typically follow the policy position of their preferred party. In recent years, however, results suggest that the Labour party may have faced difficulties in carrying its supporters from across the social value spectrum with it in its chosen policy direction. This study makes an original and substantial contribution to knowledge by extending our understanding of attitudinal structure and change, the role of parties as opinion leaders, and the drivers of ideological polarisation.

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