Thesis
Understanding scenario planning in the public sector: the case of the Abu Dhabi government
- Creator
- Rights statement
- Awarding institution
- University of Strathclyde
- Date of award
- 2022
- Thesis identifier
- T16418
- Person Identifier (Local)
- 201575712
- Qualification Level
- Qualification Name
- Department, School or Faculty
- Abstract
- This research is an in-depth study of the implementation of foresight and scenario planning as an innovative approach to enhancing strategy and policy development in the Abu Dhabi government. The over-arching aim of this study is to identify the factors influencing scenario planning implementation and practice within the Abu Dhabi government to develop a guide for public managers. The research is designed as a three-phase study. This includes Phase 1, an assessment of an initiative for scenario planning implementation as an early intervention within the Abu Dhabi government, known as Intervention 1. This is followed by Phase 2, elicitation of expert opinion on their views of the factors influencing effective implementation of scenario planning and scenario planning practice. Finally, Phase 3 is a follow-up study to examine the role of foresight and scenario planning as innovative approaches in enhancing public sector operations. The findings of the study will inform the development of a framework for a Foresight Ecosystem for the Abu Dhabi government. Phase 1 findings showed that there was tremendous support and commitment from the Executive Office in their efforts to enhance and develop the public sector. Intervention 1 was successful in the sense that the initiative has created a good foundation for an open mindset to the adoption of new and innovative management approaches. Intervention 1 put forward the need for the creation of networking, skills development and awareness-raising events around foresight, systems thinking, and integrated policy development. This reflects the more significant aspiration of developing a foresight culture within the government of Abu Dhabi. The nationwide introduction to scenario planning has urged public managers to get out of their comfort zone and to embrace new practices such as using scenario planning as a process for strategy development. Intervention 1 (Phase 1 of this study) demonstrates the willingness of the senior management at the executive level of the government to test and challenge basic or dominant assumptions of the decision making and policy development process. Intervention 1 was evidence of the shift from a rationalist school of thought where strategising for the future lies with an elite few to a processual school of thought, in which entities install and create processes to make the organisation more adaptive and capable of learning from its mistakes (Argyris, 1977, van der Heijden, 1997). Intervention 1 also demonstrates the shift from a functional, hierarchical organisation that tends to “engage in centralised and bureaucratic planning to a network organisation with more divergence in goals that tends to approach planning with an emphasis on learning and space for dialogues for converging goals and purposes” (Galer and Van der Heijden 1992). Participants appreciated foresight and scenario analysis, as government entities struggle to keep up with and ahead of the disruptions caused by rapid changes, facing questions such as “how must the role of the department change in order to remain relevant?” While foresight practice was found to be embedded across functions within some of the departments or entities, they realised that foresight and scenario planning requires intense involvement of senior executives, as well as extensive time and financial resources, and they struggled with the lack of expertise and capabilities for application of methodologies. The findings surface the desire for an operational guide or framework for foresight practice. The final output of this research is a framework for a Foresight Ecosystem for the Abu Dhabi government. The framework serves to describe the key elements of the foresight ecosystem for the Abu Dhabi government and public sector entities. It will inform the design and implementation of scenario planning as a coherent and integrated practice that emphasises engaging with key stakeholders’ perspectives, linking strategy planning and policy development, clarifying and embracing its role as a planning tool rather than a single-use tool, and provide system flexibility to reflect internal and external demands. It will also provide an opportunity for other governments and public sectors to learn from the experiences of Abu Dhabi, which could reduce both the time required to climb the learning curve and the cost of improvement and be a reference tool for public sector foresight efforts. This research empirically documented the experiences from two major milestones of the Abu Dhabi government (i) a nationwide introduction to and first implementation of scenario planning and (ii) the subsequent expansion of the quest for expertise in considering and planning for the future to include foresight as part of the innovative approaches to public sector management. This empirical study extends the literature on foresight and scenario planning by including knowledge constructed from the Middle East.
- Advisor / supervisor
- Wright, George
- Bradfield, Ronald
- Resource Type
- DOI
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